How do exit polls compare to results?

Q: Why do exit polls differ from results?

Late-breaking voter movement, poll weighting assumptions, turnout variations, and last-minute campaign effects can all cause divergence.

Data as of 2026-04-30 Sources: ECI, affidavits, published records Method is public and auditable

Methodology Transparency Corrections policy

Direct answer High confidence

Exit polls differ from results because of late-breaking voter movement, poll weighting assumptions, turnout variations, and last-minute campaign effects. Large divergences often occur in tight or polarized contests with volatile voter sentiment.

By Greatidude Research Desk · Editorial byline · Published: 2026-04-27 · Reviewed: 2026-04-27

Sources: Exit polls , Results · Dataset rev: tn-public-data-2026-04-27 · Entity rev: answer-copy:exit-poll-vs-results:2026-04-27

See exit polls and results hubs for comparison.