What causes exit poll errors?

Sampling bias, late-breaking voter movement, poll weighting assumptions, and turnout variations can all affect exit poll accuracy.

How accurate are exit polls?

Data as of 2026-04-30 Sources: ECI, affidavits, published records Method is public and auditable

Methodology Transparency Corrections policy

Direct answer High confidence

Exit polls typically have ±2–3% accuracy in seat share. Errors compound in tight races where seat counts are close to majority thresholds, and poll variance increases when results are closely contested.

Based on aggregated agency error margins across multiple Indian state and general elections (2014–2024).

By Greatidude Research Desk · Editorial byline · Published: 2026-04-27 · Reviewed: 2026-04-27

Sources: Exit polls , How exit polls work · Dataset rev: tn-public-data-2026-04-27 · Entity rev: answer-copy:exit-poll-accuracy:2026-04-27

See exit polls hub and methodology for context.